Hugo Chavez and his vision...

Ok, if you've read my blog, you know how I feel about mister Chavez. But I've been doing some more reading and research and here's the situation...

Chavez is trying to amend the Venezuelan constitution to effectively make himself a dictator. Abolishing term limits for one. What I was unaware of is how complex the political situation is there in Venezuela. With the oil revenues coming in, He holds a powerful asset and he is still popular although not nearly as popular as I felt I was led to believe. There are protest groups that are making alot of noise down there. Namely student organizations and...the Roman Catholic Church. Another little tidbit of info that I was also unaware of until this morning is that Venezuela has a LARGE Italian expatriate population...hmmm.

Chavez is likely to succeed with his power grab, at least in the short term, but my opinion on his staying power is that he won't be there too long...it may take a few years, but I suspect his regime will be overthrown.

The Crime rate in Venezuela is very high and the security there is atrocious. The Mayor of Caracas brought in a former Police commissioner from NYC to help bring down the crime rate. Hired a whole schlew of new cops and there was actually a positive effect in that the crime rate did go down noticeably in a relatively short time....but Chavez decided that such a powerful police force that was not firmly in his pocket was a threat to him and he effectively dismantled them and disarmed them too, they can only carry handguns. They're no longer have the firepower to deal with the serious criminal element in the city anymore. Chavez, of course has installed his loyalists in all areas that are critical and that does not necessarily mean they're all that competent, but that they will do what he wants them to. As a result, Caracas is back to being just as violent as ever.

So, although I still consider him a threat, he's not as scary as I thought he was. He is a petty dictator with grandiose designs, but I doubt he'll see much past a few years of tyranny in his country...I don't think his arm will be as far reaching as I once believed.

Just thought I'd share my thoughts on this...